John Hollinger's Wizards preview: Predictions, analysis for 2022-23 season (2024)

Last season: 35-47, 21st in offense, 25th in defense
Key additions: PG Monté Morris, SF Will Barton, PG Delon Wright, C Taj Gibson
Key subtractions: SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, C Thomas Bryant, PG Raul Neto, PG Ish Smith, PG Tomáš Satoranský
Draft picks: SG Johnny Davis (10th), C Yannick Nzosa (54th)

By now, Washington Wizards fans are familiar with my go-to lament about the franchise: The decision to ride with Bradley Beal come hell or high water has deprived the franchise of an awesome haul for its best trade asset and instead likely committed it to another half-decade of mediocrity. I already wrote about the folly of Beal’s extension and no-trade clause earlier this summer.

So instead, in previewing the 2022-23 season, let’s flip the question on its head: What could be any different about this season versus the last two? If the vision is to build the best team they can around Beal and whatever, how can they get the best version of “whatever”? And, thinking bigger, what would put them in a position to trade for somebody better than Beal — the one way for this equation to add up to a contender.

Let’s start with the fact that it took some amazing work by Washington to get this team back to half-decent respectability in the wake of the John Wall contract disaster. Through a series of trades, the Wizards managed to turn him into a Morris, Kyle Kuzma and Barton without giving up a raft of draft picks. In turn, the team’s cap situation is now manageable as well: They are under this year’s tax line, and to stay under next year, it shouldn’t be complicated. Player options for Kuzma and Kristaps Porziņģis loom as potential issues, but there is roughly $60 million in float to re-sign them.

Those two players are undoubtedly the biggest variables for this season as well. Beal is a known quantity as a 30-point scorer, especially if he can figure out how to shoot 3s again (seriously, what’s going on there?), but let’s just say there’s more variance in what you might expect from the other two.

Porziņģis looked like an All-Star after Washington acquired him at the trade deadline last season (and in the process liberating themselves from the weight of Dāvis Bertāns’ contract) with a 27.7 PER on 60.6 percent true shooting in 17 games. Meaningless games, yes, but still. The fact he was upright for them may matter even more: Porziņģis hasn’t played more than 57 games in any of the past five seasons but post-trade took the court for 17 of 18 games in a four-week span, including four back-to-backs. Given the season was over, this was a wee bit overzealous, but it’s at least proof of concept that he can stay healthy.

In the meantime, Kuzma still doesn’t get much respect from my numbers; he had a rough start to the season, and his plus-minus numbers were awful. The eye test after the new season, however, was much kinder. Kuzma conveniently played exactly 33 games both before and after Jan. 1; his numbers in those stretches look like two different players. After sputtering to 14.5 points per 36 minutes on 52.1 percent true shooting before New Year’s Day, he had eight straight 20-point games in January and averaged 21.7 points per 36 on 56.6 percent true shooting after Jan. 1.

Kuzma still has his faults: His shooting remains erratic (33.9 percent career from 3, 72.4 percent from the line), and the idea of him as a switchy, versatile defender has yet to catch up to the reality on most nights. Nonetheless, the 27-year-old has the talent to be a slashing third scorer who thrives on the attention drawn by Beal and Porziņģis.

Those three players should be the centerpiece of an offense that has a chance to finish in the league’s top 10. Washington has no other big stars, but the front office has done a nice job of filling out the depth; the Wizards should be at something of an advantage once the war of attrition strikes in mid-winter. The point guard position looks to be massively upgraded with Morris and Delon Wright, Barton is a proven bench scorer who could be part of a lot of closing lineups and Daniel Gafford (stolen from Chicago two years ago for Troy Brown Jr.) is a solid 25-minute center whether starting or coming off the pine.

The real test of the Wizards’ depth, however, will come with their lottery picks from the last four seasons. Hitting a late lottery pick out of the park was the one chance the Wizards had to change the trajectory of the Beal-or-bust approach. Thus far, that hasn’t happened. Unfortunately, the draft has been the least compelling part of the post-Ernie Grunfeld administration’s résumé.

It’s not like any of these guys are terrible; Corey Kispert, Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura and the just-drafted Johnny Davis all figure into Washington’s plans for this season. It’s just that it’s hard to get excited about the idea of any of them ever becoming one of this team’s three best players.

Avdija probably has the best chance of the bunch because of his defense, but his shooting has yet to come around (31.6 percent career from 3). He’s only 21 and sees the floor and rebounds well enough to be a plus at either forward spot if opponents were ever compelled to guard him on the perimeter. Alas, the stroke is as unconvincing to the eye as it is on paper.

Kispert has a chance to be a plus role player because of his shooting, but combine him and Avdjia, and you have a good player. He only made 35.0 percent from 3 as a rookie but has the stroke to shoot in the low 40s. The bigger concern is that his low release point may prevent him from shooting in the desired volume — he needs to be flinging more than 10 3s per 100 possessions to make an impact. Kispert also is big and a sneaky-good finisher who made 62.9 percent of his 2s as a rookie; he’s a Joe Harris starter kit, basically.

Hachimura … sigh. He can score one-on-one, but he’s never figured out how to insert his skills into a five-man game or use his size and mobility to be an impactful defender. His percentages did improve last season, but he won’t be gifted a spot in the starting lineup the way he was his first two seasons. He’s not a bad option as a fourth forward, but the Wizards hoped for more. With his contract expiring, it’s hard to imagine him still being a Wizard a year from now.

Davis, drafted 10th this year, seems to fit almost perfectly into the Wizards’ history of milquetoast late-lottery picks after an extremely underwhelming summer league. He’ll likely be backing up Beal for 10 minutes a night in the short term but will need to upgrade his 3-point shooting and ballhandling to carve out anything larger.

That’s what they’re rolling with. The Wizards can’t trade a first until 2028 given the protections on the pick they owe from the Wall trade. That would be the most effective way to immediately juice the roster. It’s probably for the better that they can’t throw future draft equity at a 37-win team. And in the short term, they’re at least forced to see what they have (or, possibly, don’t have) this season before firing any more bullets.

Overall, it feels like a transition season … but a transition to what? A half-decade of Beal-Zinger-Kuzma? Three straight Play-In Tournaments followed by the house of cards collapsing in 2026? It’s hard to say, and it’s unclear what the barometer of success is beyond, “We’re not tanking!” and Wizard-for-life chest-beating.

What’s not hard to say is that this team will struggle on defense. There’s a glaring lack of perimeter stoppers, although Avdija is auditioning for the role. Porziņģis and Gafford provide decent rim protection, but one is prone to injury and the other to fouls. Last season’s team was 21st in offense and 25th on defense; it’s easy to imagine the offense improving several notches but much harder for the defense. Kuzma locking in on that end would help.

In the best-case scenario, Porziņģis stays healthy, Kuzma blows up, one of the kids makes a leap and the Wizards get 45 wins or so and a mid-tier playoff seed. More likely, there’s a speed bump or two along the way, and they’re fighting to get into the Play-In Tournament. Either way, it’s hard to get excited about, but this is exactly what the Wizards signed up for when they committed to paying Beal rather than trading him.

Prediction: 38-44, 11th in Eastern Conference

Wizards by BORG and BORD$

• BORG — Projected value over replacement, per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger’s BORG formula
• BORD$ — Projected value for 2022-23 according to Hollinger’s BORD$ formula
• (R) — Rookie, no projection available
• (2w) — Player on two-way contract

(Photo of Bradley Beal: Scott Taetsch / USA Today)

John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger