Mailbag: Which Wizards player will make the biggest leap? Should we expect another major move? (2024)

Which of the Washington Wizards’ returning young players will make the biggest leap next season?

How much trade interest do the Wizards’ youngsters generate?

How hesitant is Washington to give up draft capital?

I answer all of those questions and more in the newest edition of The Athletic’s Wizards Mailbag.

(Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and grammar.)

Between Rui, Deni and Kispert, who is poised to take the biggest leap next year? — @moretee721

I’ll go with Deni Avdija.

He’s only 21 years old, which is two years younger than Corey Kispert and three years younger than Rui Hachimura. Given Avdija’s relative youth, it should be no surprise that he has further to go than Hachimura or Kispert in terms of adding to his skill set.

He needs to improve his 3-point shooting. Though he made only 32 percent of his attempts last season, his shooting form isn’t broken. Indeed, he made 39 percent of his attempts when the closest defender was at least 6 feet away. I think he needs reps to improve his confidence, and those reps will come only with time.

He also needs to feel more comfortable dribbling with his left hand, as well as finishing with either hand close to the rim.

There’s another reason to feel optimistic: This is Avdija’s first NBA offseason he can devote primarily to individual improvement. Avdija’s draft, the 2020 draft, occurred just a few weeks before the start of training camp. Last offseason, he focused on recovering from a right ankle fracture. This offseason, he has spent considerable time working with skills coaches, including highly regarded Drew Hanlen.

Kispert’s looking to improve his one-on-one defense, 3-point shooting and ability to attack closeouts. He’s my second choice for a leap among this trio, in part because the offseason during a player’s rookie and second seasons typically is the biggest offseason for growth.

Hachimura made a massive jump with his 3-point shooting last season, making 45 percent of his attempts, and I don’t think it’s realistic to expect any player to improve on that figure. The areas that Hachimura needs to build most are his team defense, individual defense and his willingness to pass, and those areas will be more difficult to quantify.

Do other teams covet any of our players? Of the young folks (Rui/Deni/Kispert), are any in demand in the trade market? — @TcasWizards

Would other teams like to have the Wizards players on their rosters? Yes. Washington has plenty of good, solid players, including Avdija, Hachimura and Kispert.

But you used the word “covet,” and that’s a strong word that I take to mean commanding a massive trade package in return. Jrue Holiday and Dejounte Murray are some examples of players traded in recent seasons who were truly coveted by the teams that acquired them.

Put it this way: Kevin Durant wants out of Brooklyn, but can you imagine Nets general manager Sean Marks saying, “In addition to Washington’s future first-round picks and a pick swap, I absolutely have to have Deni Avdija or Rui Hachimura or Corey Kispert to be a centerpiece of a rebuild?” I can’t.

All of this is relative, though. Heading into late June, would you or I have predicted that another team would be willing to trade two starting-caliber players — including a point guard — for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith? Probably not. And yet that’s the deal Washington swung with Denver, sending Caldwell-Pope and Smith for Monté Morris and Will Barton.

My point is that when you or I talk about the trade market, beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder. All it takes is one suitor to be enamored with a particular player’s skill set. In that case, Denver coveted Caldwell-Pope’s defense, 3-point shooting and playoff experience, and Washington wound up with a superb return.

Why do you think there is hesitancy to trade future first-round picks if the goal appears to be to win now, however fruitless that may be? –@weaselarmor

Though it’s true in a vacuum that the Wizards would prefer not to trade away future first-round picks, I don’t think it’s entirely accurate to say the team would not trade future first-round picks if the right opportunity comes along.

I can see why it might seem that Washington is overly hesitant to trade draft capital. The Atlanta Hawks traded a protected 2023 first-round pick (via Charlotte from New York), a 2025 first-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick, a pick swap in 2026 and Danilo Gallinari for Murray and Jock Landale.

We don’t know if Washington made an offer for Murray. But if Washington did make an offer for Murray, would there be a legitimate reason Washington didn’t make an offer as substantial as Atlanta’s was? (I assume here that Washington could have taken off the protections to the 2023 first-round pick it now owes to New York, creating a pathway for Washington to trade multiple future firsts in non-consecutive years.)

The answer to that question might be Morris. I’m not suggesting that Morris is as good a player as Murray, particularly on the defensive end. But Morris is a darn good player. And perhaps the gap between Morris and Murray is small enough that it made more sense for the Wizards to acquire Morris and Barton for the relatively low price of Caldwell-Pope and Smith than acquiring Murray for the relatively high price of three future firsts, a pick swap, a Gallinari-level player and Murray’s eventual large payday.

I suppose Wizards fans also could fault the team for not trading for Malcolm Brogdon, considering the Boston Celtics traded four nondescript players, Aaron Nesmith and a 2023 first-round pick for Brogdon.

My counter to that would be that Morris is a far more durable player than Brogdon. Morris also has a more team-friendly contract than Brogdon and already has built mutual trust with Wes Unseld Jr. Plus, the Wizards also got Barton in the deal.

So to sum up: I think Washington wants to retain its future picks to have them for when the right opportunity arises — perhaps when a star-level player elsewhere might become available. I think the Wizards would consider trading draft capital if the incoming player would provide a very significant upgrade.

Should we expect at least one more major move from this team or is it safe to say this will be the team we roll out next season? — @edlova31

Are we done making moves or is there possibly more to come via trade? — @AbovetheRhim

I would never discount the possibility of Tommy Sheppard making a trade. His willingness to complete trades has been one of the hallmarks of his tenure as the team’s general manager.

But I don’t expect a significant deal in the offing.

Once the team signs Taj Gibson to a one-year deal, the Wizards will have 15 players on their conventional roster, plus one of their two-way spots filled.

I think it’s a real possibility that the Wizards will trim their conventional roster to 14 players in order to enter the season with some flexibility. The team likely will employ its remaining two-way spot on a point guard whom the team can call up if either Morris or Delon Wright gets hurt. Some possibilities for a two-way spot include Pierriá Henry and perhaps even Devon Dotson.

Should we consider this upcoming season Wes Unseld Jr.’s “first” season for review and accountability purposes after the late hire/wacky roster and implosion of last year? — @colonelius

For the most part, yes: The upcoming season will be a much more fair season to evaluate Unseld than last season.

The relatively late hire, the massive offseason roster turnover, Bradley Beal’s injury, injuries overall, Hachimura’s absence, bad chemistry and the teamwide COVID-19 outbreak are all valid reasons to grade Unseld on a curve last season.

Morris should be a better fit for the team, and with Beal, than Spencer Dinwiddie was. Unseld already is an expert on Morris’ and Barton’s strengths and weaknesses. The returning players will enter the season with a better feel for Unseld’s defensive schemes. Beal is likely to play more than just 40 games.

But should the Wizards discount last season entirely? No, not if a pattern starts to emerge. If Washington remains relatively healthy in 2022-23, then it would be disconcerting if the team doesn’t improve defensively after it finished 25th last season in defensive efficiency.

So the Wizards should give Unseld the benefit of the doubt — for now — because last season’s impediments would have been daunting for almost any coach. But team officials also should expect to see improvement in the year ahead.

Are the Wizards comfortable with going into the season with a relative logjam at the three/four spots for the second season in a row? — @SeauxAfrican

Will there be efforts to consolidate the roster via another trade? It feels like there is a traffic jam with so many forwards. — @EShepardJr

I have the same question about the logjam at forward, but give details if possible. — @NoelDickover

Do you see Tommy making some sort of trade to help figure out the logjam at the forward spots? — @BulletsPR

I agree the Wizards have a lot of overlap at their forward spots. Kyle Kuzma, Hachimura and Avdija are three/fours. Barton and Kispert are two/threes.

And Kristaps Porziņģis, Isaiah Todd, Anthony Gill and Gibson can play power forward.

Would it be better for the Wizards if they had a bit more roster balance between the backcourt and the frontcourt? Yes.

But I don’t view the imbalanced roster as a significant problem — and I don’t think the front office is all that concerned about it in the near term, either. Kuzma starting at the four and Barton starting at the three would still leave plenty of time for Hachimura and Avdija to play at the two backup forward spots.

That leaves a competition between Johnny Davis and Kispert for the backup two-guard role, although Wright could play the two on occasion next to Morris. Barton also could see time at shooting guard.

Certainly, it would help the development of Avdija, Hachimura, Kispert and Davis to have unobstructed routes to minutes. But at some point, I would like to see one or more of those players earn their minutes by outplaying each other and by outplaying veterans.

If the team and Hachimura don’t reach an extension before the start of the season, I would imagine that Hachimura’s name would surface in trade rumors before the 2022-23 season trade deadline.

I read a lot of people saying, “The Wiz should have traded Beal and bottomed out.” But what evidence do we have that the front office could execute a rebuild quickly? Their draft picks have been conventional — no diamonds in the rough or anything. — @mberman

It’s true that the Wizards have tended to draft in recent years seemingly more focused on immediate playability than on taking risky swings for long-term upside. (I suspect that the front office would push back on that assertion to say that Avdija, Hachimura, Kispert and Davis have room to grow, and those players do have room to grow. But I stick by my “playability” statement.)

One area where Washington has been deficient over the past decade has been with its second-round picks. Since 2012, when the Wizards selected Tomáš Satoranský 32nd overall, they’ve gotten almost no mileage out of the second round, though it should be noted that they tended to draft in the latter half of the second round, where it’s even more difficult to find diamonds in the rough. They just haven’t had that many bites at the second-round apple.

Maybe Todd, the 31st pick last year whose draft rights were subsequently acquired by the Wizards, will turn out to be that piece.

But for now, who is the Wizards’ version of Herb Jones, whom the New Orleans Pelicans drafted 35th overall last season and who made the NBA All-Rookie Second Team?

I suspect Washington’s draft strategy would change if it ever bottoms out and isn’t in win-now mode.

Still, you touch on one of the biggest problems of rebuilds: how slow they can go. The speed varies on many factors, but lottery luck is the key piece. In 2019, for instance, the Memphis Grizzlies got lucky to win the second overall pick. And then, when Zion Williamson was selected first, I would argue it didn’t take the Memphis front office much skill to decide to draft Ja Morant second.

(Top photo of Deni Avdija: Jim Dedmon / USA Today)