National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --900FXUS61 KAKQ 011054AFDAKQAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNational Weather Service Wakefield VA654 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and a cold front willpush south of the entire region by around midday today. Behindthe front, north then northeast winds associated with highpressure will bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity fortoday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return later in the week.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...As of 400 AM EDT Monday...Early this morning, sctd showers and a few tstms with heavy rainright in advance of a cold front, were pushing ESE across thesrn two thirds of the region. These showers and possible tstmswill continue to move ESE and eventually push south of theentire area by around midday today. Behind the front, winds willshift abruptly to the N/NE, and become gusty to 20-30 mph, asmuch cooler and drier air starts to filter in. The sky willgradually become mostly sunny from NW to SE from later thismorning through this aftn. With dew pts falling into the 50smost areas, and highs holding in the upper 70s to lower 80s,peak heat indices today will be an astounding 25 to 30 degreeslower than yesterday.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...As of 400 AM EDT Monday...Clear or mostly clear and comfortable tonight, as sfc highpressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the mid50s to around 60F along and W of I-95, and 60-65F to the east.The center of the sfc high will move to just off the srn NewEngland coast Tue. Generally mostly sunny with SCT aftn CU andstill rather comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew ptsremain in the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high will sit just offthe New England and Mid Atlc coast Tue night and Wed. Clear topartly cloudy and still rather comfortable Tue night, with lowsin the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensusfor the return of the upper ridge over the SE CONUS by midweek,with Wed being the transition day. With sfc high pressure stillcentered just off the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer andjust slightly more humid, but still near average for earlyJuly, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s atthe coast). Generally mostly sunny again. Dry and more humid Wednight with lows in the mid 60s to near 70.&&.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...As of 400 AM EDT Monday...- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model consensusfor a return to hot and humid weather starting Thu/IndependenceDay. An upper level ridge will be in place over the SE CONUS,slowly shifting off the east coast into next weekend. Highs lookto range from the mid to upper 90s well inland, and in the 90-95Frange closer to the coast Thu-Sat. Perhaps trending slightlycooler by Sun, as the next cold front pushes in from the W.With dewpoints climbing back into the 70-75F range, heat indiceswill likely be at least 100-105F. As for PoPs, expect dailychances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms.&&.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...As of 220 AM EDT Monday...Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions at the TAF sites untilaround midday today, as sctd showers and a few tstms, and acold front pushes through the area. Any heavier showers or atstm will be capable of producing brief IFR flight restrictions.Winds shift to the NNE this morning and will be gusty, esply atthe coast. Could see a period of MVFR CIGs at PHF/ORF/ECG earlythis behind the front. Then, mainly VFR conditions expected forthis aftn through Wed, as high pressure provides dry weather.&&.MARINE...
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As of 655 AM EDT Monday...Key messages:- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches today.- A period of SCA conditions is expected across the entire marine area through late morning/early afternoon. Occasional gusts of ~35 knots are possible on the bay between 3 and 9 AM Monday morning.- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period, with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.Latest analysis reveals sfc low pressure off the New Englandcoast, with the associated surface cold front dropping acrossthe waters early this morning. As of 11z, winds have become NNWover the entire region, with the front about to cross south ofthe Albemarle Sound. NW winds of 20-25kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt)are expected through mid to late morning before graduallydiminishing through the afternoon. SCA remain in effect for theentire marine area until 10a for the coastal waters north ofCape Charles, and into the afternoon elsewhere. Seas build to3-5ft through mid- morning, waves increase to 2-4ft waves in thebay.Winds slowly diminish this afternoon, turning to the NE 10-15kttonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the NewEngland coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in thelower bay and lower James before midnight tonight/early Tuesdaybefore gradually diminishing. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft thisevening as high pressure builds to the NW of the local waters.The high eventually settles S off the coastal Carolinas bymidweek with the wind becoming southerly.Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for allbeaches for the rest of today and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...None.NC...None.VA...None.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652-654.&&$$SYNOPSIS...TMGNEAR TERM...TMGSHORT TERM...LKB/TMGLONG TERM...LKB/TMGAVIATION...TMGMARINE...AM/MAM